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Home News Hawaii Area Forecast Hawaii Area Forecast
Hawaii Area Forecast
Area Forecast Discussion for Hawaii
Area Forecast Discussion for Hawaii

Area Forecast Discussion for Hawaii
  • Synopsis
    High pressure centered far north of the state will maintain moderate to breezy trades over the islands through the next few days. Clouds and passing showers will favor windward and mauka areas of the smaller islands, with mainly dry conditions leeward. The Kona slopes on the Big Island will continue to see clouds and widely scattered showers each afternoon and evening, followed by clearing skies each night and morning. A wetter and more unstable trade wind pattern may develop during the middle and later parts of the week.

  • Discussion
    Mainly dry conditions prevail across most of the Aloha State on this early Sunday morning, with widely scattered light showers moving quickly to the west-southwest within the trade wind flow over windward sections of the islands. Surface analysis shows high pressure centered far to the north-northwest of the state, with moderate to breezy trade winds prevailing to the south of this high over the islands. Mimic-TPW satellite imagery shows a relatively dry airmass over and upstream of the islands. The 12Z soundings show typical conditions, with PW values around 1.3 inches and inversions around 8000 feet. Model consensus maintains persistent high pressure to our north during the next several days, with the anchoring high strengthening slightly and shifting a bit eastward. This will maintain moderate to breezy trade winds locally, focusing clouds and showers across windward and mauka areas of the islands. Model consensus maintains a rather dry and stable airmass over the islands through Tuesday, so expect showers to remain mostly light and scattered even over windward areas. Guidance continues to indicate that a wetter and more unstable trade wind pattern could develop by midweek, when models develop a mid/upper level trough near or just west of the main island chain and bring an area of enhanced lower level moisture in from the east. Moisture-stability parameters show the potential for enhanced showers and perhaps even isolated thunderstorms from Wednesday through at least Thursday. Will continue to monitor during the next few days, but it is too soon to make any major adjustments to the forecast at this time.

  • Aviation
    VFR will predominate across the state through the day. Expect only brief periods of MVFR conditions in windward and mauka sections, especially in the morning and evening hours, as scattered showery low clouds move along on the prevailing trade flow. No AIRMETs are currently in effect.

  • Marine
    The overnight ASCAT pass clipped the Big Island and Maui waters and reflected advisory-level winds across the Alenuihaha Channel and the waters south of the Big Island. This lines up well with the latest model guidance, which supports extending the small craft advisory for these waters through tonight, as well as for the Pailolo Channel and Maalaea Bay waters. Elsewhere, the winds are projected to remain just below advisory levels through much of the week with fresh trade winds persisting south of high pressure. The latest nearshore wave model guidance indicates the maximum seas across these windier zones remaining just below advisory level through the week. Out at the area beaches, rough surf will continue along the east facing beaches through the week due to strong trade winds south of high pressure centered north of the state. After another small southerly pulse moves through tonight through Tuesday with below advisory-level south shore surf, a decent stretch of small surf seems likely through the remainder of the week and much of the first week of July. The ECMWF-WAVE solution depicts a batch of gales setting up southeast of New Zealand within Hawaii's swell window around the second of July, which would support a slight increase in south shore surf through the second week of July. However, the WAVEWATCH III and ensemble guidance depict a weaker solution over this area southeast of New Zealand through this time.

  • HFO Watches/Warnings/Advisories
    Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM HST Monday for Maalaea Bay, Pailolo Channel, Alenuihaha Channel, Big Island Leeward Waters, Big Island Southeast Waters.

  • Footer
    DISCUSSION...Jacobson AVIATION...Kinel MARINE...Gibbs