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Home News Hawaii Area Forecast Hawaii Area Forecast
Hawaii Area Forecast
Area Forecast Discussion for Hawaii
Area Forecast Discussion for Hawaii

Area Forecast Discussion for Hawaii
  • Synopsis
    Light winds across the state combined with an unstable airmass will result in a chance of showers and thunderstorms through Tuesday. A drier and more stable airmass is expected for the second half of the week, though light winds and muggy conditions will remain.

  • Discussion
    High pressure far to the northeast is being pushed away from the state by an approaching cold front located northwest of the islands. This scenario leaves Hawaiian in a light east- southeast flow area between the two features. The local scale afternoon sea breeze and nighttime land breeze circulations will continue through the next several of days. Dew points will remain in the low 70's and sensible weather conditions will remain muggy through the week. Aloft, we have a weak upper low that has destabilized our atmosphere allowing for isolated thunderstorms to form over the state and coastal waters. Without a significant steering flow near the surface showers and thunderstorms will form in place and tend to remain or slowly drift, before raining itself out. A handful of flood advisories have been issued for these gully washers. A flash flood warning is not out of the question, but that would be a worst case scenario. The current forecast maintains a chance of thunderstorms through Tuesday evening as the low slowly weakens and drifts northeast. However, the chance of thunderstorms could extend into Wednesday as models are indicating cold air aloft lingering over the islands. Will examine this scenario further for the 4 am forecast package. Moisture remains abundant in the low levels for the next few days. Any forcing due to the upper low or convergence around the islands will likely set off heavy showers. For mid to late week, the upper trough weakens and drifts north, and instability around the islands will decrease. Weak easterly trades will remain for the last half of the week as another front to the northwest keeps high pressure at bay to the northeast. Local sea breezes with afternoon clouds and showers will continue, and night time land breezes will partially clear skies.

  • Aviation
    A chance for thunderstorms remains over the entire area. Currently thunderstorms are active over south Big Island, 20 nm SW of PHNL, and in the northern coastal waters, with CB tops above fl350. These thunderstorms and ones that may develop will carry IFR conditions. Scattered showers will favor windward and mauka areas, with possible tempo MVFR conditions. As of 07Z there are no airmets in effect, however, airmet sierra will be issued as conditions warrant through the night. Otherwise, terminals, for the most part, will remain predominately VFR.

  • Marine
    Isolated thunderstorms are possible through Tuesday over the coastal waters. Otherwise, light east to southeast winds will continue through the week. Only small swells are anticipated to move through the area this week. A small northwest swell is expected to arrive on Tuesday, peaking on Wednesday. This swell will be reinforced by a small northwest Friday. The south facing shores will encounter a series of small swells from the south through Thursday, the largest arriving on Tuesday through Thursday.

  • HFO Watches/Warnings/Advisories
    None.

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    MORRISON...DISCUSSION AND MARINE EATON...AVIATION