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Home News Hawaii Area Forecast Hawaii Area Forecast
Hawaii Area Forecast
Area Forecast Discussion for Hawaii
Area Forecast Discussion for Hawaii

Area Forecast Discussion for Hawaii
  • Update
    Isolated thunderstorms over the windward Big Island have prompted an update of the forecast for that island tonight, especially over the summits where frozen precipitation is possible since temperatures are currently hovering close to the freezing point.

  • Synopsis
    Breezy trade winds will continue across the main Hawaiian islands chain tonight before dropping to moderate levels later this weekend. Expect wet trade wind weather conditions to persist into early next week, especially across the windward and mauka areas of the aloha state.

  • Discussion
    The tight pressure gradient south of a 1029 mb surface high centered near 35°N 152°W, or more than 1000 miles north northeast of Honolulu, is maintaining breezy trade winds across the main Hawaiian island chain this evening. Infrared satellite imagery and radar reflectivity data showed the low clouds and showers associated with a dissipated front continue to affect most of the islands early this evening. A mid- to upper-level trough above the islands has caused a slight destabilization of the atmosphere. As a result, some of the showers along the windward Big Island appear to be locally heavy. However, the strong trade winds are pushing these showers through at a fairly rapid pace, so we expect most of these downpours to be short-lived. The surface high far north northeast of the islands, which is moving southeast at about 20 mph, will maintain the strong trade winds through tonight. The forecast models indicate the surface high will weaken slightly this weekend. Therefore, we are expecting the trade winds to decrease slightly from Saturday through Sunday. At the same time the middle to upper level trough is expected to remain in the vicinity of the islands through Monday before it lifts out to the north Tuesday. The presence of this feature combined with enhanced low-level moisture will keep trade wind showers occurring into next week. This will keep showers active, especially over windward and mauka areas with a few moving over leeward sections of the smaller islands. As the surface high continues to move east and weaken early next week, another weak front is forecast by the models to approach the region from the northwest. As this occurs, it will cause trade wind speeds to gradually decrease to moderate levels. The trades will likely increase again by mid-week as a new surface high builds far northwest of the state.

  • Aviation
    Clouds and SHRA associated with a dissipated front will continue to move across the islands through early Saturday, bringing brief MVFR conditions to most taf sites, especially windward areas. There are enough low clouds to warrant the continuation of airmet mt obsc for windward Kauai and Oahu, as well as the Big Island. In fact, the band of low clouds reaching the Big Island earlier this evening may spread to Maui in the next few hours, bringing possible mt obsc conditions for windward Maui later this evening into early Saturday morning. Moderate to locally strong trade winds will persist across the islands as a strong surface high pressure remains far north of the state at least through early Saturday. Airmet for low level turb for all islands will continue.

  • Marine
    A small craft advisory /sca/ remains posted through tonight for most Hawaiian waters due to the strong trade winds and rough, elevated seas. As the trade winds drop a notch Saturday, conditions over some of the waters are forecast to gradually improve by Saturday. However, the trade winds will likely remain strong enough in the vicinity of the typically windy waters adjacent to the Big Island and the islands of Maui county to maintain SCA conditions through Saturday night. A combination of north swells and trade wind-generated waves will continue to produce choppy, elevated surf along most north and east facing shores of the island chain. As a result, a high surf advisory remains in effect for most east facing shores through Saturday afternoon. Moderate choppy surf will likely continue along most east facing shores from Sunday into early next week. Otherwise, small to moderate north northwest and north swells are forecast to maintain modest surf along most north facing shores through early next week. However, a larger short-period north swell is expected to arrive Wednesday, peak Wednesday night, then slowly subside Thursday and Friday. Finally, surf along south facing shores of the aloha state will remain small through Monday, with a slight bump expected Tuesday as a small long period swell arrives.

  • HFO Watches/Warnings/Advisories
    High surf advisory until 6 pm HST Saturday for east facing shores of Kauai, Oahu, Molokai, Maui, and the Big Island. Small craft advisory until 6 am HST Sunday for Maalaea Bay, Pailolo channel, Alenuihaha channel, Big Island leeward waters, Big Island southeast waters. Small craft advisory until 6 am HST Saturday for Kauai northwest waters, Kauai windward waters, Kauai leeward waters, Kauai channel, Oahu windward waters, Kaiwi Channel, Maui county windward waters.

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