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Home News Hawaii Area Forecast Hawaii Area Forecast
Hawaii Area Forecast
Area Forecast Discussion for Hawaii
Area Forecast Discussion for Hawaii

Area Forecast Discussion for Hawaii
  • Synopsis
    Moderate to fresh trades will continue through Monday, then weaken by Tuesday as hurricane Guillermo disrupts the flow. Showers will increase as remnant moisture associated with former tropical depression 08°E reach the islands today and on Sunday, with best chances of rain over windward and southeastern portions of the Big Island. The forecast for next week will be highly dependent on the eventual track of hurricane Guillermo, but anticipating a wet weather pattern across the islands Tuesday night through Thursday night.

  • Discussion
    A broad high pressure is centered far north of the state driving moderate to fresh trades across the islands through Monday. Visible satellite and radar show scattered clouds and showers impacting the windward sides of the islands this morning with mostly sunny skies across the leeward areas. Temperatures will continue to be warm with highs in the upper 80s to low 90s and lows in the mid 70s, but the breezes will make conditions a little more bearable. The Big Island will be impacted by clouds and rainfall associated with the remains of tropical depression 08°E today through Sunday night or Monday. Thunderstorms have recently reformed near the center of 08°E, but these will likely pass south of the Big Island as the moisture expected to impact will be on the northern periphery of the post-tropical cyclone. Windward and southeast portions of the Big Island will be most impacted by the rain, and could become locally heavy at times. Trade winds will carry some of the moisture from 08°E over the windward smaller islands tonight and Sunday, but showers will not be as concentrated as on the Big Island. Models show winds weakening across Hawaii Monday night into Tuesday as hurricane Guillermo begins to disrupt the trade wind flow. We will begin to feel the effects of Guillermo by Tuesday night with an increase in cloud cover and rainfall. These effects will continue through Thursday night as Guillermo reaches or passes near the islands. However, it is important to keep in mind that the overall forecast scenario will continue to evolve during the next several days as new track and intensity forecasts are issued. Long range models show moderate to locally fresh trade winds building back over the state this weekend.

  • Aviation
    Vfr conditions prevail at most taf sites with the exceptions of PHTO PHNY and PHLI where there has been occasional MVFR conditions being reported due to low clouds and SHRA. Expect these conditions to continue through the day especially at PHTO as moisture associated with former tropical depression 08°E moves into the Big Island from the east. Airmet sierra remains posted over the windward Big Island slopes due to low clouds and SHRA. Airmet tango remains posted over and immediately south and west of mountain ranges of all islands due to moderate to fresh trade winds.

  • Marine
    A small craft advisory /sca/ is in effect over the typically windier areas around Maui and the Big Island through 6 am HST Sunday. The SCA is in effect for breezy trade winds accelerating through the island terrain. The driving high pressure system is expected to weaken and slide northeast away from the state Sunday or Monday which will allow winds to weaken. Hurricane Guillermo, located far east-southeast of the Big Island, will continue to move toward the west northwest and reach the central Pacific waters later today. Although the track and intensity of the tropical cyclone remains uncertain so far in the future, adverse effects for Hawaiian coastal waters next week can not be ruled out. That being said, swell generated from Guillermo is aimed towards Hawaii from the east-southeast. Anticipating forerunners from this swell to reach the eastern part of the state as early as Sunday afternoon. The swell will build surf heights to advisory heights along the east facing shores by Sunday night which will likely linger through much of the week as Guillermo reaches or passes by Hawaii. A high surf advisory will likely go into effect Sunday afternoon or night for east facing shores.

  • HFO Watches/Warnings/Advisories
    Small craft advisory until 6 am HST Sunday for Maalaea Bay, Pailolo channel, Alenuihaha channel, Big Island leeward waters, Big Island southeast waters.

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